Japanese General Election Aug 30th

[Spicy Okayu]

Yeah I watched the LDP rally by Narita station yesterday. All they were saying was "Why is this town rich? Because of the airport! And what are we gonna do? Protect the airport!!"

I just wonder what kind of bearing this will have for non citizens? What is the DPJs stance regarding immigration laws? More of the same, I guess. But anyway, I think we can all agree that anything is better than the LDP.

I think you'll find the DPJ much more willing to discuss the reality of immigration, and in a more open way than the LDP.
The LDP mavericks that were discussing it were talking about limiting foreigners to a 3% cap of the population, currently nearing 2%. Of course, with a birth rate at around 1.2, and the population already heavily saturated with people 50 yrs. old+ and an increasing number dying off, the number of immigrants would soon have to drop year by year in order to maintain that 3% limit. Clearly unworkable.

It's too early to see how successful the DPJ will be. Their biggest fight is not going to be the economy, or the opposition parties, nor the right-wing crazies, nor the Americans; it's with the people that actually run the country and set official policy: the bureaucrats. They've been calling the shots for the past 60 years and they're not going to give up without a tremendous fight. Hopefully the DPJ will have the balls to cut the fat, and there's a lot to cut. More than enough to pay for all their promises, and then some.

As for NJ, we might in time be able to expect:

* A juuminhyou (yes, already in the pipeline, though with negative conditions)
* Relaxed rules for ye old "Zairyu Card" (nee. gaikokujintourokushoumeshou), like no RFID chip, no 24 carry w/ 30万 fines etc.
* A more receptive government on eliminating the fingerprinting BS at the airport (and keeping the data 70 years, making it accessable by the police for crime searches, and sharing the data with "friendly foreign agencies" (read: FBI, CIA, MI6, MOSSAD)
* A real law against racial discrimination, in line with the UN CERD.
* A reforming of the family registration law which might allow:
- NJ to be listed properly on the family Koseki (even allow parents with Japanese kids to be listed as head of the household perhaps)
- allow spouses to have different last names
- allow joint custody of children during divorce
- Japan to sign the UN convention on child abductions
- dual citizenship

[boroko]

[- dual citizenship

Do you really think that's a possibility? I would imagine they would be inundated as there's everything to gain from that but pretty much nothing (or very little at least) to gain from the present system of trading in an EU/US etc passport for a Japanese one. Or we're you just talking about kids of mixed couples?

[TPS Reports]

Yeah, the whole family here was pretty disappointed with the turnout in Fukui. I guess it's to be expected, considering how conservative the place is, but the LDP candidate for the 1st Block (which includes Fukui City) is a total waste. She came round our house handing out her flyers, which discussed her running under some ridiculous platform of "expanding the traditions of Fukui to the rest of Japan". I asked her exactly what that was supposed to mean, and she ratted off some garbage about how she loved Fukui and wants the rest of Japan to agree with her that Fukui is the best prefecture... f*** politicians. I asked her what that meant in terms of specific policies, but she shuffled off with a yoroshiku onegaishimasu.

[Spicy Okayu]

[- dual citizenship

Do you really think that's a possibility? I would imagine they would be inundated as there's everything to gain from that but pretty much nothing (or very little at least) to gain from the present system of trading in an EU/US etc passport for a Japanese one. Or we're you just talking about kids of mixed couples?

I consider it a real possibility, especially since even the LDP was floating the idea recently.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 114a1.html

Even some Japanese are looking for alternatives:

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 029b7.html

[boroko]

[- dual citizenship

Do you really think that's a possibility? I would imagine they would be inundated as there's everything to gain from that but pretty much nothing (or very little at least) to gain from the present system of trading in an EU/US etc passport for a Japanese one. Or we're you just talking about kids of mixed couples?

I consider it a real possibility, especially since even the LDP was floating the idea recently.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 114a1.html

Even some Japanese are looking for alternatives:

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ ... 029b7.html

Didn't know that! Although I was, rather than that, thinking more about people like Debito and Rudd Crunch not having to revoke their previous nationality. Any chance of that?

[Spicy Okayu]

Didn't know that! Although I was, rather than that, thinking more about people like Debito and Rudd Crunch not having to revoke their previous nationality. Any chance of that?

Well, the article does touch on that, although it is unclear under the LDP proposal whether those who had naturalised would be able to "apply" to regain the nationality they gave up.

"Also under the proposal, foreigners would be able to obtain Japanese citizenship without giving up their original one. But the proposal does not say whether those who had had multiple nationalities and gave up one or more to retain their Japanese citizenship can regain other nationalities."

For some, in Rudd's case it would be easy, if allowed, as UK citizens forced to give up their passport do it with a wink and a nod; they only need to ask to get it back later. As for Debito, the US rules I imagine would be tougher. He had to go through a ton of crap just to give it up.

[boroko]

Thanks. I really ought to get round to learning to read.

[Oriental Chairboy]

Yeah, the whole family here was pretty disappointed with the turnout in Fukui. I guess it's to be expected, considering how conservative the place is, but the LDP candidate for the 1st Block (which includes Fukui City) is a total waste. She came round our house handing out her flyers, which discussed her running under some ridiculous platform of "expanding the traditions of Fukui to the rest of Japan". I asked her exactly what that was supposed to mean, and she ratted off some garbage about how she loved Fukui and wants the rest of Japan to agree with her that Fukui is the best prefecture... f*** politicians. I asked her what that meant in terms of specific policies, but she shuffled off with a yoroshiku onegaishimasu.

That's a pretty good story. I bet she isn't used to being taken to task like that, particularly since the LDP have probably held those seats since God knows when. It's quite possible they've never been anything other than LDP since the war.

I think that demonstrates the LDP's complacency more than anything else I've read - 'If some prole on the doorstep asks you about policies, throw them hackneyed platitudes about the traditions of Fukui or something. They won't answer back' - seems to be the attitude.

Good on you for calling the candidate on it.

My only brush with a candidate came with a 2-second handshake with Naoto Kan last Thursday and a 'Gambatte' from me. I did talk at length with one of the local DPJ city assembly guys I know through his Canadian wife. I said I'd only get an Eijuken if it meant I could vote as I don't see the point otherwise. He said they he 'really wanted that to happen' (which, since he has a Canadian wife, I don't see any reason to disbelieve).

[kazojet]

The LDP candidate in my ward, Sato Yukari, lost to the DPJ dude by quite a margin, despite 'visiting us' every day and evening for the last two weeks. Guess 57% of the people have given up on the LDP in getting things fixed. Will keep her brochures as a momento.

I'm certainly keeping my hopes high. DPJ may be up to some drastic moves, but who's to say they will be all bad?
Can't wait to see Tanaka Makiko back as the Foreign Minister.

But one thing I hope it DOESN'T happen is to increasingly tax the singles and give the extra yens to the married.
This group of people helps put the DPJ into power, so the DPJ better not bite the hands that just feed them with 308 seats!

Honestly, hate to learn that Abe, Mori and Fukuda make it. Utterly ridiculous.

[elgin_j]

The DPJ won't be able to live up to the faith the populace has that things will change because they are fighting vested interests that have been entrenched for 60 years. IF they get re-elected then maybe you'll start to see things change but the power-holders are going to stall and delay until the point where they have no choice, and that isn't going to be anytime soon...

[Oriental Chairboy]

The DPJ won't be able to live up to the faith the populace has that things will change because they are fighting vested interests that have been entrenched for 60 years. IF they get re-elected then maybe you'll start to see things change but the power-holders are going to stall and delay until the point where they have no choice, and that isn't going to be anytime soon...

Did you paste that straight out of the Dinosaur Japanologist's Handbook?

[TPS Reports]

I bet she isn't used to being taken to task like that, particularly since the LDP have probably held those seats since God knows when. It's quite possible they've never been anything other than LDP since the war.

I think that demonstrates the LDP's complacency more than anything else I've read - 'If some prole on the doorstep asks you about policies, throw them hackneyed platitudes about the traditions of Fukui or something. They won't answer back' - seems to be the attitude.

Yeah, it was definitely fun to have that chance. I'd like to think it threw her for a loop but she knew exactly what to say to get the other fogeys who were gathered around to rally around her "Fukui-ness". Damned politicians, but worse than that, damned voters for not seeing through that utter claptrap. Every single person I talked to about it couldn't come up with a single concrete definition of her policies. It's basically the regional version of Abe's "Beautiful Japan". Argh, it pisses me off just thinking about it.

[Oriental Chairboy]

[ img ]

Is this her?

[TPS Reports]

That is indeed her. Here's her homepage:

http://www.inada-tomomi.com/index.html

The extent of her policy descriptions are three paragraphs of utter fluff:

http://www.inada-tomomi.com/plitical-id ... tical.html

[Saru Paradise]

aso's steppin' down as head of the LDP:
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiap ... pstoryview

The LDP can blame Aso if they want, but this has to do with years of failure, years of status quo and abuses that went uncorrected. I'm just thinking about the NHK, for example....wasn't there some scandal a few years ago involving bureaucrats who had office parties and so forth on the public dime? And then they started demanding payment and actually going after people who held out on their user fees? I think people had finally had enough. This was brewing for a long time, and the economy was the last straw.

Aso also was highly unpopular, a horrible leader for the party, and fought tooth-and-nail to try to hold off the DPJ until he had to call elections.

He brought out the dirt on Ozawa almost definitely, in the hopes that cutting off the head would kill the DPJ, and look where that got him (nowhere). It was up to the LDP to see this as a serious challenge, and Aso looked like he ignored all the signs and took a serious beating for it in the end.

[Sikorsky]

I don't think anyone (Japanese included) will disagree that Japanese tend to be a bit psychologically extreme, at least compared to all the various other national types out there. Think of all the weird little psychological curiosities that exist here and nowhere else, all the oddities and curiosities that inhabit this fair chain of islands, and the question becomes, what happens when an extremist personality type starts to question the very foundation of its structure? like a Lamborghini that goes either 300 mph but falls to pieces if just one component breaks, I can only pretend *weird* times ahead for Japan, as opposed to your Brazilian or Hungarian personality profile, i.e., never going to go faster than 60 mph top, but will chug through quicksand, forest path or highway at the same herky-jerky velocity.

what will happen to a japan whose labor is too expensive for global markets, yet whose meticulous attention to craftsmanship loses its edge to Korean, and even Chinese design? I don't think we'll be too far off in predicting the acceleration of certain trends, i.e., increased rise of new religions/cults, perhaps a much more militant environmental movement, a surge in crime, or even fundamental geopolitical rebalancing. the last, I suspect, would be the least helpful to the Japanese as a people; as tempting as it is to believe that they can retrench as a non-aligned nation, the fact of the matter is that neither China nor Russia is prepared to offer the same support to the country as the US/UK is, and this might be a lesson that has to be learned the hard way.

it's possible this will be a 5 year interregnum, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if the LDP was substantially out of power for even a dozen (outside: 20?). then, a new neo-conservative movement will sweep the country, a country that will look quite different from the one today, but calling on its adherents to return to "core values."

maybe all this is 80% likely to happen. Huntington seemed to make so much sense until he suddenly didn't.

[fukuchan]

The uyoku were out in full force today decrying the results of the election and blaming Obama for the DPJ. They were talking about sending more Kagoshima spirit to the Diet or something. Sounds suspiciously like 1877 around here.

[Oriental Chairboy]

The uyoku were out in full force today decrying the results of the election and blaming Obama for the DPJ. They were talking about sending more Kagoshima spirit to the Diet or something. Sounds suspiciously like 1877 around here.

I saw them in Tokyo today too, talking about how the DPJ are going to let Trade Unions trample all over everyone. Funnily enough though I didn't see them once during the campaign itself. Did you? It's as if they're trying to close the door after the horse has bolted.

I'm glad it's over though. Japanese political campaigns are so tedious.

[Brighton]

A little off topic, but has anyone else noticed the uyoku's change in approach recently?

Around here (suburb of Osaka) they have ditched the rousing military style choons in exchange for the Kimigayo, or occasionally and even more puzzlingly, some '80s style rock track, the significance of which I can't quite grasp due to the poor quality of their amp system and subsequently distorted broadcast. Additionally, when they stop and give a speech to the town hall across from my apartment, the indignant ossan voice has been replaced by that of a thoroughly smart sounding young woman.

I am interested in the reason for this, and its significance...

[Oriental Chairboy]

Here's the DPJ Manifesto itself in English as a pdf:　http://ow.ly/nnD4

[aliass]

As for NJ, we might in time be able to expect:

* A juuminhyou (yes, already in the pipeline, though with negative conditions)
* Relaxed rules for ye old "Zairyu Card" (nee. gaikokujintourokushoumeshou), like no RFID chip, no 24 carry w/ 30万 fines etc.
* A more receptive government on eliminating the fingerprinting BS at the airport (and keeping the data 70 years, making it accessable by the police for crime searches, and sharing the data with "friendly foreign agencies" (read: FBI, CIA, MI6, MOSSAD)
* A real law against racial discrimination, in line with the UN CERD.
* A reforming of the family registration law which might allow:
- NJ to be listed properly on the family Koseki (even allow parents with Japanese kids to be listed as head of the household perhaps)
- allow spouses to have different last names
- allow joint custody of children during divorce
- Japan to sign the UN convention on child abductions
- dual citizenship

this sounds more like a NJ Christmas wish list than something on the DPJ's to-do list.

The RFID chips in the gaijin cards are inevitable. The Japanese government have put them into the J-passports. This year they are putting it into all the J-driver's licenses. Why on earth would they not do it with the ARC?


The juminhyo and the koseki are changing and spouses are already allowed to have different last names.

The only positive thing that the DPJ might implement for NJ is dual citizenship but that won't be happening for a long time and not without a fight.

[elgin_j]

The DPJ won't be able to live up to the faith the populace has that things will change because they are fighting vested interests that have been entrenched for 60 years. IF they get re-elected then maybe you'll start to see things change but the power-holders are going to stall and delay until the point where they have no choice, and that isn't going to be anytime soon...

Did you paste that straight out of the Dinosaur Japanologist's Handbook?

If there is wholesale change in the next 4 years then fair enough, I shall post back up recognising my mistake but you know I'm right, as much as you're desperate for me not to be!

hug and kisses, big fella.

[LeprosyStudyGroup]

The uyoku were out in full force today decrying the results of the election and blaming Obama for the DPJ.

He's quite insidious.

They were talking about sending more Kagoshima spirit to the Diet or something.

Lucky them.

[ img ]

[lifer]

What is the DPJ's idea on reducing Japan's debt load? At the moment, the national debt here is something like 200% of GNP, and still rising. It's a staggering level for any nation to bear.

Balanced budget?
Debt reduction?

Or are all the problems simply going to be passed on to the next two generations to solve? Given the demographic death spiral that Japan is entering, that is a losing prospect.

[panzerdampf]

What is the DPJ's idea on reducing Japan's debt load? At the moment, the national debt here is something like 200% of GNP, and still rising. It's a staggering level for any nation to bear.

Balanced budget?
Debt reduction?

Or are all the problems simply going to be passed on to the next two generations to solve? Given the demographic death spiral that Japan is entering, that is a losing prospect.

Japan, second on the list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... ublic_debt . Three different figures, though. Italy is sixth on this list, I seem to remember them being first with like 220%. Apparently not.

[kagekatsu]

Italy is sixth on this list, I seem to remember them being first with like 220%. Apparently not.

That was before their customs officials found the 134 billion dollar suitcase.

[lifer]

What is the DPJ's idea on reducing Japan's debt load? At the moment, the national debt here is something like 200% of GNP, and still rising. It's a staggering level for any nation to bear.

Balanced budget?
Debt reduction?

Or are all the problems simply going to be passed on to the next two generations to solve? Given the demographic death spiral that Japan is entering, that is a losing prospect.

Japan, second on the list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... ublic_debt . Three different figures, though. Italy is sixth on this list, I seem to remember them being first with like 220%. Apparently not.

It's a hideous number, and one that will bite the economy on the ass if not taken care of. It goes far towards explaining why interest rates here are kept at basically zero. Can you imagine the cost of servicing such a debt load with even modest increases in interest? Recipe for disaster.

Imagine- it would take committing 5% of the national economy to the problem more than 40 YEARS to pay off. This is the euqivalent of 5 times what Japan spends on national defense. At a rate equivalent to defense spending, the time to pay it off stretches out to 2 centuries. 7 generations.

It can't continue.

[panzerdampf]

Italy is sixth on this list, I seem to remember them being first with like 220%. Apparently not.

That was before their customs officials found the 134 billion dollar suitcase.

Almost forgot about that shit. Didn't see much in the news after the initial incident, but I'm pretty sure the US gov came out and said they were fake.

It can't continue.

But what will they do about it? I don't see them breaking their porkbarrel habit, but then on the other hand I can't see them (or any other first world nation) defaulting--unless that's the kind of thing that just happens one day.

[The Last Dragon]

Imagine- it would take committing 5% of the national economy to the problem more than 40 YEARS to pay off. This is the euqivalent of 5 times what Japan spends on national defense. At a rate equivalent to defense spending, the time to pay it off stretches out to 2 centuries. 7 generations.

It can't continue.

I wonder how long it would take to pay it off if they cut all the porky construction projects?
I wish there were a stat in the budget for "pointless construction to provide jobs and line the pockets of retired bigwigs."

[kagekatsu]

It's a hideous number, and one that will bite the economy on the ass if not taken care of. It goes far towards explaining why interest rates here are kept at basically zero. Can you imagine the cost of servicing such a debt load with even modest increases in interest? Recipe for disaster.

Imagine- it would take committing 5% of the national economy to the problem more than 40 YEARS to pay off. This is the euqivalent of 5 times what Japan spends on national defense. At a rate equivalent to defense spending, the time to pay it off stretches out to 2 centuries. 7 generations.

It can't continue.

After you factor in inflation and GDP growth it's not quite as bad. Although it's certainly still bad.